Buccaneers at Cowboys Preview: A Rookie Quarterback on His Second Start, Lamb Off a 17-Catch Night, and 0-4 Tampa Bay in Arlington
The last time these two met, in December 2024, it finished 26-24 to Dallas. A lot has changed since. Tampa Bay arrive in Arlington still looking for win number one, without the quarterback who has run their offence for the past three seasons, and without the safety who led them in tackles a week ago. Dallas are 2-2, coming off a road win in Houston in which CeeDee Lamb caught seventeen passes, and they have had four days to turn themselves around for a prime-time game at home. The market has made Dallas the biggest favourite on the board this week.
How Tampa Bay Got to 0-4
The season started in Cincinnati and the Buccaneers lost 33-27. Then Cleveland came to Raymond James and won 23-19. Then Minnesota won 23-16 in Tampa, a game in which Baker Mayfield was sacked six times and left the field late in the fourth quarter clutching his throwing hand. Jalon Daniels finished that one out, and four days later he started against Green Bay: 148 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, three sacks taken, and a 17-14 defeat. That is four losses by margins of six, four, seven and three.
Mayfield’s right thumb is the story. Reporting this week put the recovery at three to six weeks, and he has been ruled out, which means a second consecutive start for Daniels — an undrafted free agent out of Kansas who was not supposed to be anywhere near the field in October. Tampa Bay’s offence sits in the bottom three in the league in expected points added per play. That is the number that has followed them all month.
The wider picture is a roster in transition. Mike Evans left in the offseason, which handed the top of the route tree to Emeka Egbuka, whose rookie season produced 63 catches for 938 yards and six touchdowns on 127 targets. Through four weeks of 2026 he has 15 catches for 154 yards and a score. Chris Godwin and Cade Otton are still there, Bucky Irving is the lead back, and Todd Bowles is in his fifth season trying to hold it together. Buccaneers fans will also note one piece of good news: rookie edge defender Rueben Bain Jr. carries no injury designation after missing Week 4.
Dallas: Points Guaranteed, Stops Optional
The Cowboys have scored 122 points in four games, second most in the NFL. They have also given up 112, and they have allowed twenty or more in every game and twenty-eight or more in three of the four. The statistical profile is blunt: a top-five offence by expected points added per play, and a defence ranked among the three worst in the league by the same measure. Every Dallas game this season has gone over its total.
The season so far reads 28-20 loss at the Giants, a 37-20 win at home to Washington, a 34-31 defeat to Baltimore in the international game in Rio de Janeiro, and then the win in Houston. That last one was the CeeDee Lamb show: seventeen catches on twenty-one targets for 189 yards and the go-ahead touchdown. Through four weeks he has 37 receptions for 498 yards and four touchdowns from 46 targets, and he has caught at least five passes in every game.
The concern for Dallas is a four-day turnaround and a defence missing bodies. Cornerback Cobie Durant, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and tackle Drew Shelton are all out with hamstrings; Jonathan Bullard and Jalen Thompson are on injured reserve. The one to watch is guard Tyler Smith, the best offensive lineman on the roster, who has missed four games since thumb surgery and is listed as questionable. Dallas are hopeful, and if he plays he lines up next to Cooper Beebe and Tyler Booker — which matters a great deal against the man in the middle of Tampa Bay’s front.
Head-to-Head: The Last Five
| Date | Venue | Result | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Dec 2024 | Arlington | Cowboys 26-24 | Dallas |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Tampa (postseason) | Cowboys 31-14 | Dallas |
| 11 Sep 2022 | Arlington | Buccaneers 19-3 | Tampa Bay |
| 9 Sep 2021 | Tampa | Buccaneers 31-29 | Tampa Bay |
| 23 Dec 2018 | Arlington | Cowboys 27-20 | Dallas |
Dallas lead the all-time series and have won all three postseason meetings. Tampa Bay have won just twice in fifteen visits to Arlington. The last four meetings have all been decided by seven points or fewer except the 2023 wildcard game, which was not close.
Three Things to Watch
1. A rookie quarterback against a pass rush that has to win
Daniels took three sacks and threw two picks in his first start, and Dallas know exactly what to do with that. Their edge group — Donovan Ezeiruaku and Rashan Gary among them — has one job on Thursday: collapse the pocket early and make a young quarterback throw before he wants to. Tampa Bay’s counter is the run game and short throws to Egbuka and Godwin. If Dallas let Daniels settle, the upset becomes thinkable. If they do not, this gets away from Tampa Bay quickly.
2. Vita Vea against Dallas’s interior
Vea is listed at 347 pounds and has 48 tackles for loss and 35 sacks across 116 career games. He is the reason Tampa Bay have given up just 3.2 yards per carry this season, one of the best marks in the league. This is where Tyler Smith’s possible return matters: Beebe and Booker are good, but a three-man interior that includes a healthy Smith is the difference between Dallas controlling the line and Dallas being controlled by it.
3. Lamb against a secondary missing its two best pieces
Antoine Winfield Jr. fractured a rib in Week 4 and is out. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison, hurt early in Week 3, has not played since. That leaves Tampa Bay’s back end without its leader and without a starter, against a receiver coming off a seventeen-catch game and a quarterback who has looked his way 46 times in four weeks. Dallas do not need to be clever here. They need to keep feeding the hot hand.
Projected Personnel
Neither team had confirmed a starting lineup at the time of writing, and both were still adding to their injury reports on Wednesday. The names below are the players each side is expected to lean on; treat both as provisional and check the inactives roughly ninety minutes before kick-off.
Dallas Cowboys
- QB Dak Prescott
- RB Javonte Williams
- WR CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens
- TE Jake Ferguson
- Interior OL Tyler Smith (questionable), Cooper Beebe, Tyler Booker
- Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku, Rashan Gary
- K Brandon Aubrey
Out: CB Cobie Durant, LB DeMarvion Overshown, T Drew Shelton (all hamstring); Jonathan Bullard and Jalen Thompson on injured reserve. Questionable: G Tyler Smith (thumb), WR Jonathan Mingo (illness).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QB Jalon Daniels (second start)
- RB Bucky Irving
- WR Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin
- TE Cade Otton
- DT Vita Vea
- LB Lavonte David
- Edge Rueben Bain Jr. (returning)
- K Chase McLaughlin
Out: QB Baker Mayfield (right thumb), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), CB Benjamin Morrison (quad), LB SirVocea Dennis (ankle, foot). No injury designation for Rueben Bain Jr. after he missed Week 4.
Key Battles
CeeDee Lamb against whoever Tampa Bay line up at cornerback
With Morrison out and Winfield Jr. unavailable, Tampa Bay’s coverage structure loses both its best cover man and the safety who cleans up behind him. Lamb has been targeted more than eleven times a game. This is the single biggest mismatch on the field and the most likely reason the total sits near 48.
Dallas’s edge rush against Jalon Daniels
Daniels is an undrafted rookie making his second start on a short week, on the road, in prime time. Every coordinator in the league knows the plan. Whether Daniels can get the ball out to Egbuka and Godwin before the pressure arrives will decide whether Tampa Bay sustain drives or settle for field goals.
Kit Note: Cowboys and Buccaneers
Dallas’s rail runs from the white shirt carrying Prescott’s name and number and the navy one carrying Lamb, through the alternate white shirt, to a women’s navy cut and a youth size. Tampa Bay’s rail carries the current red home shirt, the throwback orange shirt from the club’s early years, the orange shirt with Godwin on the back, and the women’s pewter alternate. Everything below is live in the shop and priced the same across every size, so browse the rails.
Dallas Cowboys — the white shirt with Prescott’s name on the back, the navy one with Lamb, the alternate white shirt, plus a women’s navy cut and a youth size
Swipe to browse 5 Cowboys jerseys
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — the current red home shirt, the throwback orange shirt from the club’s early years, Godwin’s orange shirt, and the women’s pewter alternate
Swipe to browse 4 Buccaneers jerseys
